Bayern Munich: Bad, but doable

Yes, I know. We got the hardest semi-finalist and the noise regarding Pep x Us and Pep x Messi will be unbearable.
But, when we look at the football, it isn’t that bad.

1st Leg, Camp Nou

First of all, even though people will say “Pep is playing both legs at home”, he isn’t. Not even a little bit. It has nothing to do with him knowing our stadium and pitch size. He has always suffered in away matches for one simple reason: the home team always plays better at home, is always more composed to their own fans. And that won’t change.

Take a look at Bayern’s away record on the UCL this season: 5 matches, 2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draws. Out of the last 3 away matches, they lost to City (3×2), drew with Shakhtar (0x0) and lost to Porto (3×1). Pep has always suffered on away UCL ties, but it has been even worse this season, especially on the knock-off phase.

Meanwhile, we only suffered against defensive teams this season on the Camp Nou. Malaga and Celta. The only 2 defeats we suffered at home, both 0x1s, too.  All the other 23 teams fell, including Bilbao, Ajax, Sevilla, PSG (twice), Atlético Madrid (twice), Villarreal (twice), Manchester City, Real Madrid and Valencia. Especially the ones that decided to attack. And there is no chance in hell Pep will sit back against us.

We only conceded twice on UCL at home this season: to Ajax and PSG, still on the group phase, when this team was still being put together. Zero goals conceded to either City or PSG. We won all our home matches and defended really well.

And how can we beat them on the first leg? Well, Rafinha vs Neymar reminds me of Arbeloa vs Neymar on the Confederations Cup final. Messi vs Bernat is gonna be excellent for us as well, even if Alaba returns. And Suarez vs Dante and Boateng is also another advantage for us.

Of course Bayern has a better midfield. And a coach who values its use more. But City and PSG also had good midfields and we could deal with them. The high pressure we applied against PSG, especially from Busquets, should be the way to go.

“Pep is a fantastic coach, he will find a way to keep the ball from us”. Most likely, yes. But no one can prevent Messi from having his 2-3 chances to score/assist in big matches. Just as Pep is the best coach in the world, Messi is the best player of all time. Pep himself already said he would not like to face Messi on 180 minutes. He may control him for 90, but not for 180.

And now Messi has the help of Suarez (who has dealt with way better CB duos than Dante-Boateng, and scored, this season), and Neymar (who will cause Rafinha and Lahm a lot of problem).

Besides that, Bayern is still missing very important players like Benatia, Alaba, Javi Martinez, Robben and Ribery. And we are not Porto.

Pep himself has always said the team that plays at home are favorites. And we are here too.

2nd Leg

The away tie will be very, very hard. Bayern also won all their 5 home UCL matches, and only conceded 1 goal, to Porto on a possible off-side position.

They will keep more of the ball than us, the Allianz is a way smaller pitch than ours, and they will press hard against us.

But… if we win the 1st leg, by 1 or 2 goals, we will have 90 minutes to score away goals.
So, yes, Bayern are favorites to win at the Allianz, but we will have the chance to score goals that could seal the tie in our favour.

Our away record on the UCL is better than Bayern’s, too. Apart from the first trip to Paris, where MSN wasn’t yet a reality and the team was still being assembled, we won all our matches. Beat Ajax by 2, put two past Manchester City and 3 past PSG. This time around, we are not suffering while playing away on UCL, and did very well on the knock-off away matches so far.

When you have players like Messi, Suarez and Neymar against a defense that consists of Rafinha, Dante and Boateng, your chances or scoring away are real.

50-50

Everyone is saying this tie is 50-50. And it’s precisely that.

We are favorites at home, their are favorites at theirs, and it will be a match of where a team that is organized around the ball will face one that is organized around their superb attackers.

But, only one team has Messi. He didn’t play on the 7-0 in 12/13, and I’m sure he has some peace to make about that.

How well Messi performs on both ties is the key. We start at 50-50, but if he pulls performances like the ones against City, we are in for another treat.